With Indiana’s primary just around the corner, we wanted to take the temperature of the electorate. What we found wasn’t a fever. It was a cold, hard chill running through nearly every layer of the political class. (How’s that for a dramatic interpretation).
A survey of roughly 700 likely Indiana primary voters, conducted online April 24-26, paints a picture of an electorate that is engaged, informed, and absolutely fed up. Roughly 90% say they are “very likely” to vote. About three in four say they are dissatisfied with the current state of politics in Indiana — half of them “very dissatisfied.” And when asked whether they think there has been a lot of misinformation in this campaign, 69% said yes.
A quick caveat before we get to the carnage: this was a self-selected online sample, not a probability poll. It skews older, more educated, and more Republican than the overall Indiana electorate (67% said they plan to vote in the GOP primary). Treat the numbers as directional, not predictive. But the direction is unmistakable, and the size of some of these gaps is hard to explain away.
The Statewide GOP Is Underwater — In Its Own Primary
Start with the people running the state. Among voters in this sample — most of them Republicans — Gov. Mike Braun draws an approval rating of roughly 18%. Roughly 73% disapprove of the job he’s doing, and 40% disapprove strongly. That is not a polling blip. That is a governor whose own primary electorate has turned on him.
It gets worse for his lieutenant. Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith pulls about 14% approval against 75% disapproval — with 57% strongly disapproving. In two decades of looking at Indiana numbers, you do not see Republicans rate a sitting Republican Lt. Gov. that way. Beckwith’s situation is compounded by a separate question in the survey: 66% of respondents say they believe the Lt. Governor knows more than he is saying publicly about the Life Church child sex abuse scandal. Only 7% say no. The remaining 27% are “not sure” — which, politically, is not the same as a clean bill of health.
Attorney General Todd Rokita is also clearly underwater (roughly 30% approve, 57% disapprove, 38% strongly disapprove). Sen. Jim Banks is in similar territory. Sen. Todd Young is the least-disliked statewide Republican in the survey, but even he runs net-negative.
The two officials who escape the bloodbath are Comptroller Elise Nishalla and Treasurer Dan Elliot — but both have “neither approve nor disapprove” numbers above 50%, which is the polite way of saying most voters can’t pick them out of a lineup. That isn’t strength. That’s anonymity. Or as we say, boring is good.
Diego Morales Is Running Fourth in a Race He’s Supposed to Be Winning
A quick procedural note before the numbers: the Indiana Secretary of State is not chosen at the May primary. Major-party nominees are picked by delegates at the state party conventions in June — Democrats on June 6, Republicans on June 20. So we tested the names that matter: the serious contenders who are working delegates ahead of those conventions, plus former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, who is positioned outside that process.
Asked who they support, voters lined up like this:
- Greg Ballard: ~33%
- Beau Bayh: ~26%
- Dave Shelton: ~17%
- Diego Morales (incumbent): ~14%
- Blythe Potter: ~6%
- Laura Shillings: ~4%
A few things stand out. First, this is a survey skewed toward Republican primary voters — exactly the universe an incumbent Republican Secretary of State should be performing well in. Diego Morales sits in fourth. Second, even setting Ballard aside as an outside-the-convention factor, Morales runs behind a Democrat in his own backyard and trails his Republican challenger Dave Shelton by three points. That isn’t a delegate-fight problem. That’s a name-rehabilitation problem.
The convention process gives Morales an institutional shield he wouldn’t have in a primary — he only needs to convince a few hundred delegates, not hundreds of thousands of voters. But these numbers tell delegates something they can’t easily ignore: the brand they’d be defending in November is damaged.
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The Anti-Incumbent Wave Isn’t Subtle
Asked whether they planned to vote for the incumbent or the challenger in their own primary, voters said: challenger 50%, incumbent 30%, open seat 20%. Half the electorate walks into the booth predisposed to fire the person already there.
Add in the down-ballot approval numbers — own Congressman net -24, own State Senator net -4, own State Rep net -6, local government rated below-average by 46% of voters — and the picture is consistent. Voters aren’t mad at one official. They’re mad at all of them.
The Redistricting Ad Blitz: Big Reach, Small Punch
Anyone who has watched Indiana TV in the last month, opened a mailbox, or turned on a radio knows about the wave of attack ads aimed at state senators who voted against redistricting. The survey confirms what the airtime buys suggest: 73% of voters have seen them.
The problem for the people footing the bill is what comes next. Of those who saw the ads: 17% say they had a big effect, 42% say they had no effect, and 41% chose “Meh.” Combined, 83% of the people who saw the ads say they moved them little or not at all. That is a lot of money for a lot of “meh.”
Trump Is a Net Negative — Even Here
In a sample dominated by GOP primary voters, you would expect a Trump endorsement to be rocket fuel. It isn’t. Asked how it would affect their vote if a candidate publicly supports Donald Trump:
- Definitely vote for / more likely: 24%
- No impact: 33%
- Less likely / definitely against: 44%
The president’s own job-approval number among these voters splits roughly 45% approve / 50% disapprove, with “strongly disapprove” — at 35% — the single largest category. In a Republican-skewing sample. Take that for what it’s worth, but don’t ignore it.
Issues, and One More Iceberg
Voters’ top issues are the predictable trio with one local twist: economy (79%), healthcare (42%), education (38%), immigration (37%). But redistricting cracks the top six at 21%, which for a process issue is unusually high — a sign the issue has graduated from inside-baseball to ballot-box.
And then there’s data centers. Asked whether they support or oppose them, 50% said oppose, 26% neutral, 19% support, and another 5% said “support, but not near my neighborhood.” Three-quarters of the electorate is not on board. For an industry the state has been actively courting, those numbers are a flashing yellow light.
The Bottom Line
Indiana voters are showing up. They don’t trust what they’re being told. They don’t like the people in charge. And they are not in a forgiving mood.
Spring is in the air. Something else is too. We’ll have a better idea, May 5.
