A poll commissioned by Hoosier Leadership for America shows Republican Secretary of State nominee Max Engling and Democrat Beau Bayh in a dead heat heading into early voting, according to polling obtained by Indy Politics.
The Tarrance Group, a Republican polling firm based in Alexandria, Va., conducted the survey. It has Engling at 38 percent and Bayh at 37 percent. Libertarian Lauri Shillings drew 6 percent and Lincoln Party candidate Greg Ballard drew 5 percent. About 14 percent of respondents were undecided.
The poll surveyed 600 likely voters Sept. 27–30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Engling’s one-point lead falls within that margin.
Hoosier Leadership for America is a 501(c)(4) nonprofit corporation registered in Indiana since July 2024. Its president, according to a July 6 business entity report, is Andy Surabian, a national Republican strategist and longtime adviser to U.S. Sen. Jim Banks.
The group gave Engling’s campaign committee, Max for Indiana, $60,000 on June 30. The campaign says it refunded the money July 14 after an internal review found the donor’s “entity type was unclear.” Knox County Clerk David Shelton, who finished second to Engling at the June 20 Republican state convention, filed a complaint with the Indiana Election Commission over the contribution in July. Indiana law limits corporations to $5,000 a year in contributions to candidates for state office.
The poll is the first known survey of the race since Engling won the Republican nomination at the state convention, replacing incumbent Secretary of State Diego Morales on the ballot. The only previously released poll was an online survey of 400 likely voters conducted Oct. 24–Nov. 1, 2025, for Independent Indiana. That survey tested Morales rather than Engling and did not include Shillings.
Ballard’s campaign has told Indy Politics it believes it can win with about 36 percent of the vote in a four-way race. Ballard, a former two-term Indianapolis mayor, qualified for the ballot in July with 41,299 verified signatures, according to the campaign. The campaign says that makes him the first non-major-party candidate to qualify for a statewide race since 1994.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ election forecast, rated the race a Tossup as of Sept. 9. The Indiana Republican Party announced a $1 million ad buy in September supporting Engling and Gov. Mike Braun. Bayh began running television ads in August.
Republicans have held the Secretary of State’s office since 1994.
Early voting in Indiana begins Tuesday, Oct. 6. Election Day is Nov. 3.
This story will be updated.
