Competing polls released heading into early voting show different pictures of the Secretary of State race. A survey commissioned by a Republican-aligned group has Republican nominee Max Engling and Democrat Beau Bayh in a dead heat. An internal poll from Bayh’s campaign shows Bayh ahead.
The Tarrance Group, a Republican polling firm based in Alexandria, Va., conducted the survey for Hoosier Leadership for America, according to polling obtained by Indy Politics. It has Engling at 38 percent and Bayh at 37 percent. Libertarian Lauri Shillings drew 6 percent and Lincoln Party candidate Greg Ballard drew 5 percent. About 14 percent of respondents were undecided.
The Tarrance poll surveyed 600 likely voters Sept. 27–30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Engling’s one-point lead falls within that margin.
The Bayh campaign provided Indy Politics with an internal poll, conducted by Schoen Cooperman, that has Bayh at 42 percent and Engling at 36 percent. Shillings and Ballard each drew 5 percent, and 12 percent were not sure. That poll surveyed 605 likely voters Sept. 1–3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It was taken more than three weeks before the Tarrance survey.
Hoosier Leadership for America is a 501(c)(4) nonprofit corporation registered in Indiana since July 2024. Its president, according to a July 6 business entity report, is Andy Surabian, a national Republican strategist and longtime adviser to U.S. Sen. Jim Banks.
The group gave Engling’s campaign committee, Max for Indiana, $60,000 on June 30. The campaign says it refunded the money July 14 after an internal review found the donor’s “entity type was unclear.” Knox County Clerk David Shelton, who finished second to Engling at the June 20 Republican state convention, filed a complaint with the Indiana Election Commission over the contribution in July. Indiana law limits corporations to $5,000 a year in contributions to candidates for state office.
The Engling campaign said it had no role in the Tarrance poll. “This poll was not conducted by us and was news to us today, too,” said Chloe Anagnos, the campaign’s communications director. Anagnos said the campaign compared the Tarrance results with Bayh’s earlier poll, which was taken before Republicans began advertising. She said the comparison shows that $1.3 million in ads over the last three weeks, kicked off by Braun, has had a “massive impact.” She said volunteers and donors were enthusiastic heading into early voting.
The Ballard campaign said the poll’s sponsor was a dark money group associated with Banks. It noted that the group’s $60,000 contribution to Engling was twelve times the legal limit before the money was refunded. “Of course their poll has Max winning,” the campaign said in a statement. The campaign asked why, if the group thought its numbers for Ballard were accurate, it was spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on TV ads attacking him.
The Ballard campaign said its own polling found 58 percent of likely voters were unaware of his candidacy. The campaign said that after voters learned he is a former two-term Republican mayor of Indianapolis and a Marine veteran running as an independent, Ballard moved into a statistical tie for first place with 34 percent. The campaign did not release the pollster, field dates, or sample size for that survey.
Shillings said in a statement that the poll had her at 6 percent “in a Republican sponsored poll.” She said that with 14 percent undecided, she could pass the 10 percent mark. “Just 10% in this race changes Indiana politics forever,” she said. Under Indiana law, a party whose Secretary of State candidate receives at least 10 percent of the vote must nominate its candidates by primary election. Shillings said both major parties serve their donors rather than Hoosiers, and that the office should be a service role, “not a political prize or a stepping stone.”
The two surveys are the first known polls of the race since Engling won the Republican nomination at the state convention, replacing incumbent Secretary of State Diego Morales on the ballot. The only other publicly released poll was an online survey of 400 likely voters conducted Oct. 24–Nov. 1, 2025, for Independent Indiana. That survey tested Morales rather than Engling and did not include Shillings.
Ballard’s campaign has told Indy Politics it believes it can win with about 36 percent of the vote in a four-way race. Ballard qualified for the ballot in July with 41,299 verified signatures, according to the campaign. The campaign says that makes him the first non-major-party candidate to qualify for a statewide race since 1994.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ election forecast, rated the race a Tossup as of Sept. 9. The Indiana Republican Party announced a $1 million ad buy in September supporting Engling and Gov. Mike Braun. Bayh began running television ads in August.
Republicans have held the Secretary of State’s office since 1994.
Early voting in Indiana begins Tuesday, Oct. 6. Election Day is Nov. 3.
