Democrat Beau Bayh leads Republican Max Engling by 8 points in the race for Indiana Secretary of State, according to a statewide poll released by Free Press Indiana.

The Bellwether Research survey of likely voters had Bayh at 43% and Engling at 35%, counting voters who lean toward a candidate. Libertarian Lauri Shillings had 6% and Lincoln Party candidate Greg Ballard had 5%. Eleven percent were undecided.

Thirty-two percent of all likely voters said they are certain to vote for Bayh. Twenty-two percent said they are certain to vote for Engling. Another 11% backed Engling but said they could change their minds, as did 10% for Bayh. About 2% said they were certain to vote for Ballard.

Bayh drew 85% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Engling drew 68% of Republicans and Republican leaners, and 11% of that group was undecided. Among independents with no lean, Bayh had 39%, Shillings 15%, Engling 9% and Ballard 8%, while 27% were undecided.

Ballard, a former Indianapolis mayor, did best in the Indianapolis suburbs (12%) and west-central Indiana (13%). Subgroup margins of error are larger than the overall margin.

Many voters still don’t know the candidates. Bayh’s favorability was 35% favorable and 18% unfavorable, and 27% had never heard of him. Engling’s was 12% favorable and 17% unfavorable, with 48% who had never heard of him. Ballard’s was 13% favorable and 15% unfavorable, with 44% who had never heard of him. Shillings’ was 4% favorable and 6% unfavorable, and 65% had never heard of her.

An earlier poll by The Tarrance Group, commissioned by Hoosier Leadership for America, a group associated with U.S. Sen. Jim Banks, had Engling at 38%, Bayh at 37%, Shillings at 6% and Ballard at 5%. A September poll released by the Bayh campaign had Bayh at 42% and Engling at 36%, with Ballard and Shillings at 5% each.

Other statewide races

In the race for State Comptroller, Democrat Jessica Bailey had 39%, Republican incumbent Elise Nieshalla 36% and Libertarian John Schick 4%. Twenty-one percent were undecided. Bailey’s 3-point lead is within the margin of error. Seventy percent of Republicans and leaners backed Nieshalla, and 23% of that group was undecided. Forty percent of independents had not picked a candidate.

In the race for State Treasurer, Republican incumbent Daniel Elliott had 43% and Democrat Coumba Kebe had 38%, with 19% undecided. Elliott drew 80% of Republicans and leaners. Independents split 32% for Kebe and 22% for Elliott, and 46% were undecided.

Bellwether surveyed 896 registered Indiana voters Oct. 8–11 by telephone and by online surveys sent through text message, with results based on 839 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Debate participation

The results come as the Ballard campaign objects to reports that he may be left out of the Oct. 22 Secretary of State debate hosted by FOX59/CBS4.

FOX59/CBS4 has used debate criteria set by its parent company, Nexstar Media. Those criteria require a general election candidate to receive at least 10% support in an established, nonpartisan poll chosen by Nexstar. Under that standard, neither Ballard nor Shillings would qualify. The criteria also include a clause allowing Nexstar to modify or waive them “based on the best interests of the electorate.”

In 2024, the station left Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Donald Rainwater out of its governor’s debate after he did not meet the criteria.

“One poorly timed poll shouldn’t determine which candidates Hoosier voters get to hear from,” Ballard campaign manager Nathan Gotsch said in a statement Thursday night. “That poll closed before a single one of our statewide TV ads hit the air.”

The campaign said its broadcast TV buy began Oct. 12, the day after the poll closed. It also cited Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a University of Virginia election ratings newsletter, which moved the race from “Likely Republican” to “Toss-up” in September. And it cited an August internal survey that it said showed voters moving to Ballard after hearing about his background.

All four candidates took part in the Oct. 7 Indiana Debate Commission debate.

Fundraising

Ballard’s campaign also filed its third-quarter campaign finance report Thursday. The report shows the campaign raised $434,932 from July 1 through Sept. 30 and had $278,614.94 in cash on hand with no debt. The campaign’s news release put the quarter’s total at “nearly $500,000.”

The campaign has raised $1,311,199 this year and spent $1,032,584, according to the report. The campaign has said it spent $840,000 meeting Indiana’s ballot-access requirements.

The report lists $564,721 in contributions this year from Hoosiers for Competitive Elections, a political action committee that shares the campaign committee’s Noblesville mailing address. The PAC is chaired by Gotsch and was formed to support independent candidates, Tom Davies of the Indiana Capital Chronicle reported in July.

Davies also reported that Engling’s campaign says it has raised more than $2 million, including $1 million from the state Republican Party and Gov. Mike Braun’s campaign. In a story published Thursday, Davies reported that Bayh’s spending from July through September was more than twice that of the other three candidates combined.

Ballard also filed suit Thursday asking a Marion County court to order the Indiana Election Commission to meet before the election on four pending campaign finance complaints, two involving Engling’s campaign and two involving Bayh’s. [Link to separate story.]

The election is Nov. 3. Early voting is underway.

This story will be updated.

Shabazz appears as an unpaid commentator on FOX59’s IN Focus.