by Abdul-Hakim Shabazz

We’ve been looking at some early voting data and came up with a question: how will abortion and reproductive rights play out in this election?

We looked at a couple of data points.

First, according to NBC News, more than 1.27 million votes have been cast by mail or in person. The breakdown is 56 percent Republican, 34 percent Democrat, and 10 percent other, i.e., Libertarian.   Secondly, women are outpacing men 55-45.   And 18 percent were under 30 and 71 percent were over 50.

Now, we looked at the poll we commissioned with ARW Strategies right before early voting began. We asked the abortion question of whether abortion should remain legal in most or some cases or should it be illegal in most cases.

For legality, Hoosiers are clearly pro-choice, 53-39. What was more interesting, though, were the crosstabs,  Men, 49-42. Women, 56-36. With respect to women voters, broken down by age, the results were as follows:   Ages – 18-36, 62-33; Ages – 35-49, 59-33;   Ages – 50-64, 45-44;  Ages – 65 and older, 48-43.

We bring this up because of the very long lines in polling places, particularly in Central Indiana. In our poll, we found that in central Indiana, but outside of Indianapolis, the margin was 51-41 in favor of abortion rights. We’re told that many women are showing up, as evidenced by NBC’s report. And one area we’re looking at in particular is what we call the inner doughnut. It’s th area outside of 465 but is bordered by Rt.  32 to the north, Rt. 267 to the west, Rt. 9 to the east and Rt. 135 to the south.

Looking at women, particularly those under the age of 50, the average is 60 percent pro-choice. In addition, when asked how important was the abortion issue when casting their vote, 60 percent said they would only vote for a candidate that shares their views or when considering who to vote for.

So the question is, what role will abortion play in their decision when they go vote, and are there enough of them to move the needle?

We’ll see, but abortion and reproductive rights are definitely on the ballot Tuesday.