If Indiana Democrats are going to flip a U.S House seat this fall, their best chance is in the 9th Congressional District, and even then their odds are only 1 in 4.

The 538 blog recently did an analysis of Indiana’s congressional seats and rated the likelihood of who would win.

Compiling all the data, all the Republican and Democratic incumbents won, however when it came to the 9th District, in the best case scenario,  Liz Watson had a 1 in 4 chance of beating Trey Hollingsworth.   That number was based on the odds of Watson being able to get 51.7 percent of the vote.   However, the 538 had her vote average at 46.7 percent.  She got 41.6 of the vote on the low end.  Meanwhile,  Hollingsworth averaged 53.3 percent of the vote with 58.4 percent on the high end and 48.3 percent on the low end.

Here is a breakdown of each district.*

CD 1

  • Pete Visclosky (D)- 99 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 69 percent.
  • Mark Leyva (R) – 1 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 31 percent.

CD 2

  • Jackie Warloski (R) 14 in 15 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 56.7 percent.
  • Mel Hall (D) – 1 in 15 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 43.3 percent.

CD 3

  • Jim Banks (R) – 99 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 61.8 percent.
  • Courtney Tritch (D) – 1 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 38.2 percent.

CD 4

  • Jim Baird (R) – 99 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 61.2 percent.
  • Tobi Beck (D) – 1 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 38.8 percent.

CD 5

  • Susan Brooks (R) – 99 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 59.9 percent.
  • Dee Thornton (D) – 1 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 40.1 percent.

CD 6

  • Greg Pence (R) – 99 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 63.7 percent.
  • Jeannine Lake (D)  – 1 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 40.1 percent.
  • Tom Ferkinhoff (L) –  1 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 3.9 percent.

CD 7

  • Andre Carson (D) – 99 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 68 percent.
  • Wayne Harmon (R) – 1 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 32 percent.

CD 8

  • Larry Bucshon (R) – 99 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 61.1 percent.
  • William Tanoos (L) – 1 in 100 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 38.9 percent.

CD 9

  • Trey Hollingsworth  (R) – 4 in 5 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 53.3 percent.
  • Liz Watson (D) – 1 in 5 chance of winning.  Expected vote share – 46.7 percent.

Despite all that, 538 gave the Democrats an overall 70 percent chance of taking the House back, while Republicans only had a 30 percent chance of keeping it.

*The expected vote share is an average of the candidate’s highest and lowest computed vote percentages.