By Abdul-Hakim Shabazz, Esq.

Every so often, Indiana’s political class gets bored and decides to play “What If?” with congressional maps. It’s fantasy football for people who think precinct data is foreplay. Cue the latest “genius” idea from Donald Trump and J.D. Vance: take our stable 7–2 delegation — seven Republicans, two Democrats — and go for a perfect sweep: 9–0.

Let me pause right here and say: this is dumb. Like, “tripping over your own shoelaces while carrying hot coffee” dumb.

The Map We’ve Got Works for Republicans

Right now, all the power is engineered, locked in, and efficient — for the GOP. Democrats hold the 1st District up in northwest Indiana and the 7th District here in Indy. Everything else is redder than a MAGA flag at high noon. It’s been this way for years because — surprise — it’s designed to be this way.

But apparently that’s not enough for the political adrenaline junkies. Some strategists want to blow up the 1st, pull in redder turf, and flip it. Sure, maybe you snag Frank Mrvan’s seat — for about five minutes — but suddenly the 2nd District turns into a toss-up. Congratulations, you just traded a solid blue headache for a brand-new purple migraine.

And then there’s the kamikaze play: nuking the 7th District. That means erasing Indy’s only Black-majority seat, chopping up Center Township, and scattering its voters into surrounding Republican districts. On a whiteboard, it looks “strategic.” In real life, it’s grabbing a hornet’s nest, shaking it, and wearing it like a hat.

The Turnout Math They’re Ignoring

2020 Presidential Election

  • Statewide turnout: 64.6% — highest since 1992.

  • Vote share: Trump wins statewide with 57%, Biden gets 41%.

  • Marion County: Biden racks up 63% — a 22-point Democratic overperformance compared to the state.

2022 Midterms

  • Statewide turnout: 39.6%.

  • Marion County: ~34% — about 5 points lower, but still the most Democratic county in the state.

2024 Presidential Election

  • Statewide turnout: 61.5%.

  • Marion County: ~55%, one of the lowest presidential turnouts for the county since 1988.

  • Vote share (2024 Senate): Jim Banks wins statewide with 58.6%, but only gets 35.9% in Marion; Valerie McCray takes 61.7% — a 23-point Democratic overperformance.

Marion County doesn’t just lean blue — it supercharges the statewide Democratic share by 20+ points every cycle. It’s the turnout engine. Without it, Democrats are toast.

Indiana vs. Marion County Turnout & Democratic Overperformance, 2020–2024

Why Dismantling Marion Is a Redistricting Disaster

  1. You don’t just lose a district — you turbocharge the turnout machine. Republicans think scattering Marion County voters would “dilute” Democratic strength. Wrong. It would make people so angry they’d crawl out of the political woodwork like it’s an eviction notice taped to their door. African Americans, young voters, and anyone with a functioning sense of outrage would show up in numbers Indiana hasn’t seen since Bobby Kennedy came to town. And they wouldn’t just vote in congressional races — they’d vote everywhere on the ballot, flipping the script in races the GOP thinks are safe.

  2. Statewide races flip hard. That mobilized, angry turnout wouldn’t stop at the county line. The ripple would hit governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and U.S. Senate races. Safe margins start looking more like “hope and a prayer” territory.

  3. Statehouse leaders want nothing to do with this — because they’re smart, not stupid. The people running the General Assembly didn’t get there by volunteering for kamikaze missions that solve nothing and create a buffet of new problems. They know this wouldn’t deliver a lasting 9–0 map — it would set off a political chain reaction that burns them statewide. And if they did it? It would make RFRA and every Statehouse scandal of the past 20 years look like a walk in the friggin’ park.

  4. Picture the timing. State House leaders are heading to the White House on August 26th for a bipartisan infrastructure lovefest. Try dropping a redistricting bomb right before that and watch the headline morph from “Indiana leaders work across the aisle” to “Indiana GOP targets Black voters in naked power grab.” That kind of PR doesn’t wash off.

  5. Legal kaboom ahead. Dismantling a majority-Black seat like the 7th is basically FedExing a gift-wrapped case to the Voting Rights Act lawyers at the ACLU, NAACP, and every law school from Harvard to Howard. Even if the state somehow survived in court, the process would be bloody, expensive, and politically radioactive.

The J.D. Vance Problem

J.D. Vance’s “9–0” pitch isn’t strategy; it’s fan fiction. Less political genius, more J.D.’s Revenge — yes, the 1970s blaxploitation horror flick starring the guy who later played Colonel Taylor on A Different World. Just like that movie, the plot is incoherent, the characters make terrible decisions, and everybody’s worse off at the end.

If Indiana Republicans go for 9–0, they’re not rewriting history — they’re scheduling their own political demolition. And unlike J.D.’s Revenge, there’s no so-bad-it’s-good charm here. It’s just bad.

Abdul-Hakim Shabazz is the editor and publisher of Indy Politics. An attorney licensed in Indiana and Illinois, he’s also pretty good at defamation suits — and at pointing out the stupid things elected officials do.