A study released Thursday by the University of Washington is projecting COVID-19 will hit its peak in Indiana on April 14.*
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation study presents the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next four months for each state in the U.S. According to the study’s abstract, the purpose of the research is to determine the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 across the country.
The IHME is projecting Indiana will need 10,458 hospital beds, 1,582 of those need to be Intensive care unit beds, and 854 ventilators.
The IHME says currently, Indiana has nearly 8,500 beds and 706 of them are for ICU patients, creating a total bed shortage of 1,973 beds and 876 ICU beds.
State officials have not released exact numbers on hospital beds and ventilators, however, at a Friday media briefing, they said they did not expect coronavirus cases in Indiana to peak until mid-to-late April.
In addition, the IHME is projecting Indiana will reach 110 deaths per day by April 14 and a total of more than 2,400 Hoosiers will have died due to COVID-19 by August.
To date Indiana has conducted more than 8,400 COVID-19 tests, 1,232 have come back positive and 31 people have died. According to the Indiana Department of Public Health, more than half the cases were individuals over 50 and a third were over 60.
*The IHME’s projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures, such as “stay at home” orders and temporarily closing down “non-essential” services. This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from World Health Organization websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.
