A poll commissioned by the Marion County Republican Party shows Democratic Prosecutor Ryan Mears leading Republican challenger Philip Foust, with more than a third of voters undecided. The party says the race tightens to a tie once voters are given information about Foust.

The survey was conducted July 7–13 by Opinion Diagnostics. It sampled 1,363 registered voters by phone and text message, with a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

In the initial head-to-head, Mears led Foust 37% to 28%, with 35% undecided. Respondents were then read a short description of Foust. It said he is a Harvard Law School graduate who grew up in Marion County, that he served as a Marion County deputy prosecutor handling cases including murder and robbery, and that he now manages a multimillion-dollar budget as Clerk-Treasurer for the Town of Speedway. The description added that he is running to refocus the prosecutor’s office on public safety and justice for victims. After hearing it, respondents split 36% to 36%. The party called this a nine-point swing.

The party’s polling memo says committed partisans moved little after the description was read. The shift came from moderates, independents and voters over 65. The memo concludes Foust has an opportunity “if Foust can introduce himself to the electorate.”

The poll also found Mears running behind his party. Democrats led the generic county ballot 44% to 24% and held a 40% to 24% edge in party identification. Mears’ 37% in the initial matchup is seven points below the generic Democratic number. The memo put Mears’ net job approval at +1 and said 32% of voters could not rate him.

The survey also measured Mayor Joe Hogsett and the direction of the city:

  • Direction of the city: 51% of respondents said Indianapolis is on the wrong track, a net of −18.
  • Hogsett’s standing: He is 17 points underwater, and every region of the county was net-negative on his leadership.
  • Comparison to 2023: The memo said Hogsett’s favorable/unfavorable rating was 53/39 in September 2023, just before the last mayoral election, and his favorable number is now 19 points lower.
  • Public safety: The memo said 34% of voters believe Indianapolis is moving in the right direction on public safety.
  • Message test: A public-safety critique of Democratic leadership beat the Democratic defense 40% to 36% and carried independents by 10 points.

The Marion County Republican Central Committee framed the results as evidence that voters are “ready for change this election cycle.” It pointed to what it called Hogsett’s lack of leadership and Mears’ approach to public safety. The memo said both Mears and Hogsett are underperforming their own party.

Mears, a two-term incumbent, won re-election in 2022 by a wide margin over Republican Cyndi Carrasco, a former Indiana inspector general who is now a state senator. That race followed a record year for homicides in Indianapolis in 2021.

Mears also holds a large fundraising advantage. His campaign reported about $387,000 on hand as of April 15, compared with just over $36,000 for Foust.

Mears has been the subject of speculation about a possible 2027 run for mayor. He has not said whether he intends to run.

Foust has said Indianapolis is less safe under Democratic leadership. He has centered his campaign on public safety.

The general election is Nov. 3.