A poll of Indianapolis voters regarding the upcoming municipal elections has shown some interesting results, demographically speaking.

The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted by ARW Strategies on behalf of Indy Politics and Crosswords Public Affairs.

It revealed the following…

African-Americans

  • Thirty-four percent said the city was on the right track, while 36 percent said wrong track.  Thirty percent were unsure.
  • Fifty-eight percent said they would vote for Hogsett.  Seventeen percent would vote for Shreve.  Twenty-four percent were undecided.
  • Seventy percent approved  of the job Hogsett was doing as Mayor.
  • Crime was the most important issue facing black voters.
  • Black voters were practically split on how safe the city is 41 percent said safe, 42 percent said it was unsafe.  However, when asked about safety and downtown, 37 percent said safe, while 45 percent said unsafe.
  • With respect to gun-related violence, black voters chose Hogsett over Shreve, 47-18; 33 percent were unsure.

“While Hogsett is only getting 58 percent of black voters and 24% are undecided, I’m not sure this is really fertile ground for Shreve to make a play chipping into Hogsett’s lead,” noted pollster Andrew Weissert.  “71 percent approve of the job Hogsett is doing and it’s tough to see a scenario where they approve of his job but vote to remove him from office.”

Independent Voters

  • Fifteen percent said the city was on the right track, while 61 percent said wrong track.  Twenty-three percent were unsure.
  •  Thirty-one percent said they would vote for Hogsett, 46 percent would vote for Shreve.  Twenty-three percent were undecided.
  • Thirty percent approved  of the job Hogsett was doing as Mayor, 64 percent disapproved.
  • Crime was the most important issue facing independent voters.
  • A clear majority, 52 percent, said the city overall was unsafe.  That number rose to 63 percent when asked about safety and downtown, 37 percent said safe.
  • With respect to crime and gun-related violence, independent voters chose Shreve over Hogsett, 47-21 and 42-23, respectively.  

“Joe Hogsett has a problem with Independents and it largely comes down to crime, with nearly half calling it their number one issue. Nearly two-thirds say the city is off on the wrong track; they don’t like the job he’s doing – reflected in his poor job approval; and by a 2-to-1 margin believe Shreve would be more effective at handling crime and gun related violence,” Weissert said.  “If Shreve is going to win, he needs to consolidate the undecided Independents who believe the city is on the wrong track and disapprove of the job Hogsett is doing.  In the end, it may not matter, given the Democrats’ partisan advantage.”

Tomorrow we interview pollster Andrew Weissert.