by Abdul-Hakim Shabazz, Esq.
Every few years, Indiana politics coughs up an idea that’s less policy and more partisan fan fiction. Right now, it’s the “9-0” dream map — the notion that Republicans could redraw Indiana’s congressional districts so they hold every seat in the U.S. House.
It’s a fun thought experiment if you’re deep in the GOP echo chamber. It’s also fantasy bordering on delusion.
The latest round started when Fort Wayne Politics tried to make the 9-0 math work using 2020 census data. They followed the law’s population rule — about 753,000 people per district — and carved up the state like a Thanksgiving turkey. Even then, the best they could do was nine districts on paper, two of which were tossups with a paper-thin 51-49 GOP lean. That’s not “safe” — that’s a bad news cycle away from losing.
The obstacle isn’t a lack of creativity; it’s math, geography, and, yes, race.
Republicans dominate rural Indiana, where counties regularly go 70–30 or 80–20 red. Democrats’ base is concentrated in a handful of urban centers — Indianapolis, Gary/Hammond, Bloomington, and parts of Fort Wayne and South Bend. Those aren’t just Democratic strongholds; they’re also where much of Indiana’s Black and Latino population lives.
And here’s where the law bites back. The Voting Rights Act doesn’t just apply in the Deep South — it protects minority communities here too. Indiana’s 1st Congressional District in Northwest Indiana isn’t just Democratic because of union households and Chicago commuters; it’s anchored by a large Black (18.5%) and Latino (16.5%) population in Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, and Merrillville. Lake County alone makes up about two-thirds of the district’s population and votes overwhelmingly Democratic.
This isn’t a “swing” district; it hasn’t elected a Republican in 96 years. Even if you shrank CD-1 to make it “less blue” by pulling in more Republican precincts from Porter or LaPorte counties, you’d still end up with a majority-minority seat — and Frank Mrvan would still be the odds-on favorite to win it.
If Republicans really wanted to knock out Mrvan, they’d have to draw Merrillville — his home base — out of CD-1 entirely. That’s not mapmaking; that’s a racial gerrymander in broad daylight. Cutting up Lake County to surgically remove Merrillville would look so obviously race-based that you’d have lawyers filing suit before the ink dried.
Now, Republicans may try to spin it by saying, “We’re actually making the 1st more Black and Latino.” Don’t be fooled. In redistricting, that’s called “packing” — cramming minority voters into one seat they can’t lose so they have less influence in surrounding districts. It’s not empowerment; it’s containment. And courts have struck it down before, even when the percentage of minority voters went up, because the intent was to reduce their broader electoral impact.
Indianapolis is a similar problem. You can slice it into pie wedges to dilute Democratic strength — and Republicans have already done that — but there’s only so much juice you can squeeze before the math turns on you. And good luck trying to undo the political machine built by the late Julia Carson and maintained by her grandson, Congressman André Carson. That network is as much about deep, personal ties in the community as it is about raw voter registration numbers — and it doesn’t crack easily.
And if Republicans push too far, they risk something else: mobilizing more voters of color in Marion County. That could ripple into statewide races — exactly the kind of unintended consequence that turns a “redistricting win” into an Election Night loss. This is why House Speaker Todd Huston and Senate President Pro Tem Rod Bray continue to be the grown-ups in the room. And yes, credit where it’s due — Governor Mike Braun knows this is a bad idea that will not end well for Republicans.
And history says those fights can get ugly. In 2006, Democrats flipped three Indiana seats in a wave election, proving even “safe” districts can turn on you when the mood shifts.
Republicans already have a sweet deal: seven out of nine seats, with only Mrvan’s northwest Indiana base and Carson’s Indianapolis district locked in for Democrats. If they really wanted to stretch, they could maybe get to 8–1. But a full sweep? That’s a high-wire act in a windstorm.
There’s also the political irony. Attorney General Todd Rokita has, in the past, championed “no-gerrymander” maps. Secretary of State Diego Morales is forever talking about “Hoosiers” and “free and fair elections.” Legislative leaders, if they’re smart, are probably having visions of RFRA dancing in their heads — remembering how that political overreach blew up in their faces. And Governor Mike Braun? He doesn’t need this headache.
The only statewide figure publicly cheerleading for this 9-0 fantasy is Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith — which should tell you everything you need to know.
Republicans can keep dreaming, but for now, 7–2 is the sure bet, 8–1 is the stretch goal, and 9–0 is still nothing more than a meme. And that’s where the argument ends — no need to sell past the close. The math, the law, and the politics have already made the case.
Abdul-Hakim Shabazz is the editor and publisher of Indy Politics. He is an attorney licensed in Illinois and Indiana.
