Democrat Beau Bayh holds a three-point lead over Republican Max Engling in the race for Indiana Secretary of State, while Republicans lead the races for State Comptroller and State Treasurer, according to a statewide poll released Friday by Quantus Insights.
The survey of 757 likely voters was conducted Oct. 19–21 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Bayh’s lead falls within that margin.
In the Secretary of State race, Bayh drew 41.6 percent to Engling’s 38.6 percent. Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, running as the Lincoln Party nominee, received 4.1 percent, and Libertarian Lauri Shillings received 2.1 percent. Another 12.7 percent were undecided.
When undecided voters who leaned toward a candidate were allocated, Bayh led 43.3 percent to 40.4 percent, a margin of 2.9 points.
In the race for State Comptroller, incumbent Republican Elise Nieshalla led Democrat Jessica Bailey 42.1 percent to 36.5 percent, a margin of 5.6 points. Libertarian John Schick received 2.9 percent, 1.8 percent chose another candidate, and 14.3 percent were undecided. With leaners allocated, Nieshalla led 45.4 percent to 37.4 percent.
In the State Treasurer race, incumbent Republican Daniel Elliott led Democrat Coumba Kebe 44.4 percent to 36.3 percent, a margin of 8.1 points. Another 1.4 percent chose another candidate, and 13.9 percent were undecided. With leaners allocated, Elliott led 46.2 percent to 38.4 percent.
Quantus said Bayh is running ahead of the rest of the Democratic statewide ticket and attributed the difference to what it called his personal vote.
According to the pollster, women backed Bayh by 10 points in the Secretary of State race. In the same survey, women favored Bailey by 3 points in the Comptroller race and Kebe by 1 point in the Treasurer race.
Among independent voters, Quantus found Bayh ahead by 8 points. Independents favored Nieshalla by 4 points and Elliott by 3 points.
The pollster said roughly one in seven voters was undecided in each of the three races, and that most of those voters remained undecided when pressed to choose.
The Secretary of State race is the most closely watched of the three statewide contests on the Nov. 3 ballot. Engling won the Republican nomination at the party’s state convention. Bayh is the son of former U.S. Sen. and Gov. Evan Bayh. Ballard, a Republican who served two terms as Indianapolis mayor, qualified for the ballot as the Lincoln Party nominee through a petition drive.
Quantus Insights describes itself as a polling, forecasting and campaign consulting firm. Its co-founder and director of polling, Jason Corley, is the firm’s lead pollster. Its president is Collin Rugg, who operates a widely followed political account on X.
The full report and methodology are posted on the Quantus Insights website.
Election Day is Nov. 3. Early in-person voting is underway.
