by Abdul-Hakim Shabazz
If Max Engling loses the Secretary of State’s race, that will be the straw that breaks the Bactrian camel’s back. And yes, I picked the two-humped camel on purpose. In this story the humps are the state party chair and the governor, and both of them are carrying more weight than they’d like.
Start with the chair. Multiple Republican sources tell me Indiana GOP Chair Lana Keesling will be out after the November election. Not “might be.” Will be. As it’s been explained to me, the State Central Committee wanted to make the move now but couldn’t pull it off before the ballots are counted. So the plan is to wait until the votes are in, then hand the gavel to the vice chair.
The Keesling rumor has been around so long it should be paying rent. What’s new is the timeline, and that the people telling me about it aren’t guessing.
The backstory is a classic tug-of-war. Gov. Mike Braun wanted Keesling in the chair. The Central Committee, which actually elects the chair, had other ideas. According to my sources, the governor’s message to the committee has been blunt: keep Lana, or don’t count on me to help you raise money. Nothing says party unity like a fundraising hostage situation in the middle of election season.
Now add Engling. The party’s nominee for Secretary of State has a name-ID problem and roughly three weeks to fix it, while Beau Bayh’s campaign spends its money introducing him to voters on its own terms. Some of those introductions are a stretch. I pulled the court records on the “reckless driving conviction,” and what’s there is a pile of infractions, not a reckless driving conviction. The data center ad ties an AI consultant to data centers, which is like blaming the guy who sells pizza ovens for your cholesterol. But when the latest Free Press Indiana poll has data centers polling about as well as a root canal, “data center” is all a lot of voters will hear.
Accuracy doesn’t matter much in October. Results do. If Engling wins, a lot of the knives go back in the drawer. Everybody gets their picture taken on election night, and the Keesling transition gets dressed up as “a new chapter.” If Engling loses, someone is going to wear it, and the line of people volunteering for that job is short.
That brings us to the second hump.
The talk among some Republicans is that Attorney General Todd Rokita is ready to lay an Engling loss, and the whole Keesling saga, at the governor’s feet. Then he’d use it to argue that Braun is too unpopular to lead the ticket in 2028. Not a primary challenge, mind you. A push. The “for the good of the party, maybe you should spend more time with your family” approach.
Is that how it plays out? I don’t know. Nobody does, including some of the people involved. But anyone who has watched Rokita over the years knows he doesn’t wait for an engraved invitation.
Here’s the irony. Indiana Republicans hold every statewide office and supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly. They are not the underdog in this story. The only thing that can turn one down-ballot race into a party-wide reckoning is the party itself. Camels are remarkably tough animals. They can go a long time carrying a lot. But even a camel has its limits, and this one has been loaded up for a while.
The election is Nov. 3. Somebody should check on the camel Nov. 4.
Abdul-Hakim Shabazz is the editor and publisher of IndyPolitics.org and an attorney licensed in Indiana and Illinois. He has never served on a State Central Committee, which he considers one of his better life decisions.
