by Abdul-Hakim Shabazz
With less than month to go until Election Day, it’s time to do another round of political predictions. I did these back in August, so it will be interesting to see how much has changed, if much at all. And just like when I made my 100 day predictions, today’s forecasting is based on my knowledge and experience as of today. Ask me these same questions tomorrow (or 30 minutes from now) and you might get a different answer. So with that said, let’s begin, shall we…
- Just like I wrote before, I think Donald Trump still wins Indiana, but Hillary Clinton wins the White House. The most recent polls and political forecasting gives Clinton an 86 percent chance of winning, that’s up from 73 percent back at the 100-day mark. While Trump’s recent published comments have only motivated his base, it has alienated those moderates and soft Republicans that he needs to win. And Trump, as of now, doesn’t seem to be as concerned about getting them back as he does shoring up his base. My “270 to Win” electoral map gives Clinton 335 electoral votes and Trump 179 votes, 24 are in the toss-up category.
The U.S. Senate*
- When Evan Bayh got into the race I labelled it a “toss up”. I am making a slight change and putting this in the slightly leaning Republican category. Part of this is based on recent polling showing Bayh’s “20-point lead” is all but evaporated. But also, recent news regarding Bayh’s post Senate lobbying, the fact he was looking for a job and may have violated ethics rules in his last year in office, may not have been fully honest about it when talking to the media, the millions of dollars that come in defense of Todd Young and the fact that Bayh hasn’t run in 12 years and the fact he had a lackluster opponent puts the wind at Young’s back.
The Governor’s Race*
- The Governor’s race is still for the most part a “toss up”, but I give a light edge to Eric Holcomb. I do this because John Gregg has been running a lot longer and still hasn’t been able to break that 41-42 percent mark. Holcomb has been competitive with fundraising, although a Gregg ally tells me that he will show that he’s just as competitive. I think Trump complicates Holcomb’s political existence a little more than some of the other races because of Governor Mike Pence being Trump’s running mate. However, the best strategy for Holcomb is to focus on Indiana, which by the way, the latest polls indicate most Hoosiers think the state is on the right track.
The Other Statewide Races
- Back in August I put the races for Superintendent of Public Instruction (SPI) in the “toss up” category and Attorney General in the “leans Republican” category. That hasn’t changed.
Now this is the part where I say these “predictions” are based on today, and we have less than 30 days to go before the election so anything is possible, so if you ask me tomorrow or a couple hours from now, I may give you a different answer. And if more damning revelations are revealed about Trump (and some reportedly include racial slurs) it is all bets are off and it will literally be every man, woman and political hermaphrodite for themselves.