U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz and Democratic state Sen. J.D. Ford are in a virtual tie in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, according to a Quantus Insights poll released Tuesday. The same survey found Democrat Beau Bayh holding a narrow lead over Republican Max Engling in the Secretary of State race, which has tightened over the past month.

The survey of 601 likely voters, conducted Oct. 21-22, found Spartz, a Republican, at 45 percent and Ford at 41.8 percent. Another 9.8 percent were undecided, 2.1 percent named someone else and 1.2 percent said they would not vote in the race.

Quantus put the margin of error at plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for a single candidate’s share. The firm said the margin on the gap between two candidates is about twice that, roughly 8.8 points, so Spartz’s 3.2-point lead falls inside the margin of error. With undecided voters who lean toward a candidate included, Spartz led 47.4 percent to 44.6 percent.

Spartz led among men, 50 percent to 39 percent, and Ford led among women, 44 percent to 40 percent. Independents favored Ford 39 percent to 32 percent, with 24 percent undecided. Spartz led suburban voters 48 percent to 41 percent and rural voters 56 percent to 25 percent. Ford led urban voters 54 percent to 35 percent.

Respondents viewed Spartz favorably by 36.9 percent and unfavorably by 49 percent. Ford’s favorability stood at 36.1 percent and his unfavorability at 37.5 percent, while 26.4 percent had no opinion of him or had never heard of him. President Donald Trump’s job approval among district respondents was 44.7 percent, with 54.4 percent disapproving.

Quantus said its sample recalls the 2024 election about two points more Democratic than the certified results in the district.

In the Secretary of State race, Bayh drew 42.3 percent of 5th District voters and Engling drew 39.4 percent. Lincoln Party nominee Greg Ballard had 5.3 percent, Libertarian Lauri Shillings had 2.4 percent and 9.7 percent were undecided. Those figures cover only the district, not the full state.

The district numbers are close to a statewide Quantus poll of 757 likely voters conducted Oct. 19-21. That poll had Bayh at 41.6 percent and Engling at 38.6 percent, with Ballard at 4.1 percent, Shillings at 2.1 percent and 12.7 percent undecided.

Polling in the race, conducted by different firms using different methods, has moved over the past two months:

  • Early September: A poll released by Bayh’s campaign, taken Sept. 1-3, had Bayh ahead 42 percent to 36 percent. It was taken before Engling’s broadcast ads began in mid-September.
  • Late September: A Sept. 27-30 poll from Hoosier Leadership for America, a group associated with U.S. Sen. Jim Banks, had Engling at 38 percent and Bayh at 37 percent.
  • Mid-October: A Free Press Indiana poll conducted by Bellwether Research and released Oct. 16 had Bayh leading 43 percent to 35 percent. Engling’s campaign said that poll oversampled non-Republican voters.
  • Latest: The Quantus surveys show Bayh’s lead at about 3 points.

The 5th District takes in Hamilton County, the northern Indianapolis suburbs, and Madison, Delaware, Grant, Tipton and most of Howard counties. The Cook Political Report rates the district R+8. Cook and Inside Elections rate the race Likely Republican, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates it Safe Republican. The only other public poll of the race was an Impact Research survey conducted for the Ford campaign in July, which showed Spartz ahead 48 percent to 46 percent.

The general election is Nov. 3.