Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted Indiana’s secretary of state race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in its final pre-election look at down-ballot statewide contests.
The change came in an update from senior columnist Louis Jacobson, published Thursday, covering attorney general and secretary of state races nationwide. The Crystal Ball noted that it does not issue formal ratings for those offices as part of its regular coverage, reserving official ratings for the Electoral College, Senate, House and governors, but publishes Jacobson’s periodic handicapping of state-level races.
Jacobson wrote that the Indiana race keeps drawing interest in part because it is “easily the highest-profile contest in the state this year.” He described the field as three prominent candidates — former Republican congressional aide Max Engling, Democrat Beau Bayh of the three-generation Bayh political family, and former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, a Republican turned Independent running as a nonpartisan problem solver — plus Libertarian Lauri Shillings.
He cited polling showing Bayh with a small but consistent lead over Engling, with Ballard and Shillings trailing in the single digits.
The Crystal Ball lists the seat as open because incumbent Republican Diego Morales was denied renomination.
The Indiana shift was one of eight secretary of state rating changes in the update, seven of them toward Democrats. Michigan also moved from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Iowa, Ohio and Georgia moved from Leans Republican to Toss-up, while Nebraska and Kansas moved from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. The lone move toward Republicans was Minnesota, from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic.
Jacobson wrote that most of the shifts reflect Democratic momentum in races for other offices in those states.
Under the updated ratings, Indiana is one of four secretary of state races rated Leans Democratic, along with Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Three races are rated Toss-up.
Republicans currently hold 25 secretary of state offices nationally to 22 for Democrats, according to the Crystal Ball. Twenty-six states will elect a secretary of state this year.
The update also moved four attorney general races toward Democrats — Florida and Ohio from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, and Iowa and Georgia from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Indiana does not elect an attorney general this year.
The most recent independent public poll in the Indiana race, a Free Press Indiana survey conducted by Bellwether Research, showed Bayh leading Engling by 8 points with 11 percent of likely voters undecided. That poll surveyed 839 likely voters Oct. 8-11 and has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
A Democrat has not won a statewide race in Indiana since 2012, when Joe Donnelly was elected to the U.S. Senate, and has not held the secretary of state’s office since 1994.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
