A survey conducted by Indy Politics and ARW Strategies of likely voters in Indiana between September 25th and 26th shows the United States Senate race neck-and-neck heading into the final month.

Incumbent Republican Todd Young is receiving just 39 percent of the vote and leading his Democratic opponent Tom McDermott by two points. Libertarian James Sceniak is getting 6 percent of the vote, while 17 percent of voters are still undecided.

While the topline numbers are good news for Democrats hopeful of winning a senate seat from Republicans, McDermott’s path to victory is still an uphill battle.

First, self-identifying Republicans and Democrats are both sharing similar levels of engagement, with 89 percent of Republicans and 91 percent of Democrats saying they’ll “definitely vote” this November. Given the basic makeup of Indiana’s electorate, Republicans already start with a build-in advantage and that’s reinforced by near-equal enthusiasm among each party’s base.

Second, Young is underperforming Republicans, getting just 76 percent of his own base at this point. While its possible McDermott, or the Libertarian Sceniak, can peel away a large chunk of Republicans, it’s more likely that Young consolidates his base in the end.

McDermott leads Young with Independents, 34 percent to 26 percent, while 28 percent are undecided, so there is plenty of room for both candidates to maneuver in the final weeks.

“The numbers show a close race, but it’s tough to imagine a scenario where Todd Young doesn’t consolidate his base and end up winning closer to 90 percent of his own party’s voters. If Young does that, this race looks very different and puts himself closer to the mid-40% range on the topline numbers, and giving McDermott a much more difficult path,” said Andrew Weissert of ARW Strategies.

The poll surveyed 600 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/-4 percent.

The results are similar to a poll released earlier this summer by the McDermott campaign.

Tomorrow we have numbers for the Secretary of State’s race.

Photo: Indiana Capital Chronicle