Editor’s Note: This poll was conducted BEFORE we broke the story regarding sexual misconduct allegations against Diego Morales.
A survey conducted by Indy Politics and ARW Strategies of likely voters in Indiana between September 25th and 26th shows Republicans in danger of losing the Secretary of State’s race this fall.
Democrat Destiny Scott Wells leads Republican Diego Morales by nearly 4-points (36 percent to 32 percent) in the race to become Indiana’s next Secretary of State. Libertarian Jeff Maurer is getting 7 percent of the vote, while one quarter (25 percent) of voters remain undecided.
Wells is beating Morales with women voters (39 percent to 29 percent), while Morales holds just a two-point lead with men (35 percent to 33 percent). Wells is also handily winning young and middle-aged voters, leading 18–34-year-olds 48 percent to 18 percent, 35–49-year-olds 39 percent to 28 percent, and 50–64-year-olds 39 percent to 30 percent. Morales is remaining competitive overall based on his strength with Seniors, where he leads 42 percent to 27 percent.
A glaring problem for Morales is his weakness with his own base. Just two-thirds (65 percent) of Republicans indicate support for Morales. However, with Wells getting just 2 percent and the Libertarian getting just 7 percent, it’s possible to see a large chunk of the 27% of undecided Republicans ultimately come home.
Thirty-five percent of Independents remain undecided, but among those who have a favorite, Wells has a 2-to-1 lead on Morales (32 percent to 16 percent).
These numbers are similar to a poll conducted earlier this summer by ARW Strategies.
“Destiny Wells still has a long way to go, but Diego Morales has a real problem on his hands, and Wells is positioned to take advantage of that. If she continues to beat Morales 2-to-1 with Independents and the Libertarian stays in the mid-to-high single digits, there’s a very real chance we see a Democrat win that office for the first time since 1990,” said Andrew Weissert of ARW Strategies.
The poll of 600 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Tomorrow we will release the results in the Marion County Prosecutor’s race.