Here’s an update of what we’re hearing and seeing this morning…
If you see something interesting, let us know. E-mail: abdul@indypolitics.org
Pike Township Ballot
Voters in Pike Township who cast a straight-ticket Democratic ballot today will not have their vote automatically recorded in the township trustee race, the Marion County Election Board confirmed Tuesday.
Trustee Annette Johnson, a Democrat, is running unopposed, and the outcome of the race is not affected. Voters can still select her manually on the ballot.
“There is no issue with the equipment, this was a human error not caught in testing,” Dan Goldblatt of the Marion County Election Board said in an email to Indy Politics. Goldblatt said the problem is limited to the Pike Township trustee race.
According to Goldblatt, Johnson contacted an Election Board member Sunday evening. The board has sent instructions to poll inspectors on how to direct voters who want to make the selection. He said a post-Election Day review of the testing process will add checks so the problem is caught during logic-and-accuracy testing.
The Election Board is taking up the matter at its meeting today, which began at 6 a.m. and continues throughout the day.
IN-05 Early Vote Up Sharply, GOP Edge Narrower Than Past Cycles
Early and absentee voting in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District is running well ahead of recent midterms. The voters casting those ballots are less Republican than at the same point in any of the last three general elections, according to early voting data obtained by Indy Politics.
Through Monday, 112,291 absentee and early in-person ballots had been cast in the district, where Republican U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz faces Democrat J.D. Ford. That’s up 33% from 84,611 at the same point in 2022 and up 62% from 69,411 in 2018. It is about 59% of the 190,013 early ballots cast before the 2024 presidential election.
A Narrower GOP Edge
Voters the data classifies as Republican account for 49.6% of ballots cast so far. Voters classified as Democrats account for 40.1%, and swing voters 10.4%. That gives GOP-modeled voters a 9.5-point edge, roughly half the margin at the same point in 2018, 2022 or 2024.
| Absentee + early vote | 2018 | 2022 | 2024 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballots cast | 69,411 | 84,611 | 190,013 | 112,291 |
| GOP-modeled | 57.6% | 57.8% | 53.5% | 49.6% |
| Swing | 3.8% | 6.4% | 15.5% | 10.4% |
| DEM-modeled | 38.6% | 35.8% | 31.0% | 40.1% |
| GOP margin (points) | 19.0 | 22.0 | 22.4 | 9.5 |
| GOP lead (ballots) | 13,161 | 18,571 | 42,613 | 10,698 |
The Democratic-modeled share is the highest of the four cycles in the data. Compared with 2022, ballots from GOP-modeled voters are up 14%. Ballots from Democratic-modeled voters are up 48%, and ballots from swing voters have more than doubled.
By County
Hamilton County accounts for 60% of the district’s early vote. Delaware County is the only county where Democratic-modeled voters lead.
| County | Ballots cast | Leader | Lead (ballots) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton | 67,406 | GOP-modeled | 5,918 |
| Madison | 16,687 | GOP-modeled | 710 |
| Howard | 11,164 | GOP-modeled | 2,345 |
| Delaware | 9,422 | DEM-modeled | 781 |
| Grant | 5,500 | GOP-modeled | 1,625 |
| Tipton | 2,112 | GOP-modeled | 881 |
As of Monday, 14,831 mail ballots had been returned and 2,713 were still outstanding. The outstanding ballots split almost evenly: 37.4% from GOP-modeled voters, 36.3% from Democratic-modeled voters and 26.2% from swing voters.
Hamilton County Report
A separate Hamilton County early voting report obtained by Indy Politics puts the county’s early vote at 76,849. It sorts voters by party primary history: 31,361 Republican (40.8%), 27,832 Democratic (36.2%) and 17,656 with no primary history (23%).
The largest township totals in the report are Clay at 22,268, Noblesville at 14,701, Washington at 14,319 and Fall Creek at 13,788.
The report includes a scenario tool that assigns voters with no primary history to each party. At the setting shown, which gives 70% of those voters to Democrats, the tool projects Democrats with 52.3% of the county’s early vote. At an even split, the result reverses, with Republicans at 52.3%. Democrats would need about 60% of voters with no primary history to tie.
The scenario assumes every voter backs the party whose primary ballot they pulled. The Hamilton County total in this report is about 9,400 higher than the 67,406 in the districtwide data. Neither report states its cutoff time.
About the Data
The districtwide partisan labels come from voter modeling, not party registration, which Indiana does not have. The Hamilton County report uses primary ballot history. Neither shows how any voter cast a ballot, and neither includes Election Day voting.
Polls close at 6 p.m.
