by Abdul-Hakim Shabazz, Esq.
Everybody knows I’m a big superhero geek. But this election season requires something other than the ability to leap tall buildings in a single bound. It requires paying close attention not only to the big items, but to the small stuff too.
So for this piece, allow me to play Uatu, the Watcher.
For the uninitiated, the Watcher is a character in the Marvel universe whose job is simply to watch and observe. He’s sworn never to interfere, though every so often, when things get really out of hand, he puts his thumb on the scale.
With that said, here’s what I’m paying attention to…
Secretary of State
This is the marquee event, and it’s a four-way cage match. The last public numbers I saw, the Hoosier Leadership for America poll, had Max Engling at 38, Beau Bayh at 37, Lauri Shillings at 6 and Greg Ballard at 5. Since then, the Free Press Indiana poll gave Bayh some advantages heading into the stretch.
Here’s my issue. A Republican in Indiana should not be sweating out a Secretary of State race in the high 30s. If Engling can’t get past that ceiling, the question isn’t whether Ballard is a spoiler. It’s who he’s spoiling for. The Ballard camp told me they think they can win at 36 percent. I’ll be watching to see whether they get anywhere close, or whether his voters stay home or drift to Bayh.
And apparently I’m not the only one worried. According to the Indiana Capital Chronicle, Republican officeholders are now writing big checks to Engling in the home stretch. The state party has put in $2.7 million in cash and in-kind support. Gov. Braun earlier sent at least $500,000 from related campaign accounts. Attorney General Todd Rokita moved another $75,000, for a total of $100,000. Sen. Todd Young’s leadership PAC kicked in $50,000, bringing him to $105,000, and U.S. Rep. Mark Messmer gave $50,000. Sen. Jim Banks, who hired Engling as a staffer and endorsed him at the convention, hasn’t written a direct check but is said to be working the phones with big donors. On top of that, the Uihlein-funded Restoration of America PAC dropped $1 million into ads, including one calling Beau Bayh a “nepo baby carpetbagger.” That buy ended Monday and hasn’t been renewed, so watch whether it comes back for the final weekend. And notice that Banks isn’t on the state party’s statewide tour this week. He’s working the phones, not the stage.
When the cavalry rides in this late, it usually means the fort is under siege. In a state where a Republican Secretary of State candidate should be cruising, that’s the tell.
Does Braun Drag Down the Ticket?
The Free Press Indiana poll had Gov. Mike Braun at 38 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval. That’s lower than Donald Trump in the same poll, who was at 44-54. Only 67 percent of Republicans approved of their own governor.
Braun isn’t on the ballot, but his brand is. Gas tax holidays and pressure on utility rates were supposed to make affordability his calling card, and so far voters aren’t buying it. If Republicans underperform down the ballot, expect a lot of finger-pointing at the second floor of the Statehouse.
Does the GOP Lose Its Supermajority?
Republicans hold the Indiana House 70-30. Democrats need to flip four seats to break the two-thirds supermajority, the one that lets Republicans do business even if every Democrat walks out. The Senate is 40-10, with half the seats up.
Four seats doesn’t sound like much until you remember Republicans have held the House supermajority since 2012. Watch the suburban seats, especially in Hamilton County, and anywhere data centers have become the local four-letter word.
IN-05
I’ve said for a while this is the congressional seat most likely to flip. The latest Quantus poll has Victoria Spartz and J.D. Ford in a virtual tie. Spartz has survived close calls before, but she’s never had this many Republicans grumbling about her campaign out loud.
School Referenda
The most important thing on your ballot may be at the very bottom. As I’ve written before, referenda are less about money than about the relationship between a school district and its voters. The districts that call home only when the account hits zero are the ones I’d watch.
The Morning After for the Indiana GOP
Whatever happens Tuesday, the state Republican Party will have some housekeeping to do. If Engling loses, there will be questions about leadership, and those questions won’t wait until spring. Come Wednesday morning, we’ll see whether the GOP is doing the walk of shame.
The Indianapolis Mayor’s Race
Yes, it’s 2027. No, it’s not too early.
Mayor Joe Hogsett told IBJ he’ll announce after this election whether he wants a fourth term. That’s the same Joe Hogsett who said in 2023 that his third term would be his last, and who has kept raising money ever since. Draw your own conclusions.
Meanwhile, Prosecutor Ryan Mears ran for reelection this year, but when asked about mayor his answer was “yes, no, maybe.” If he gets in, he immediately becomes a top-tier candidate in a field that already includes Vop Osili, David Bride and Annette Johnson.
And then there’s State Sen. Andrea Hunley, who gave up her Senate seat to run. Her votes on charter schools in 2025 seem inconsistent. But there will be plenty of time to walk through those.
The Undecideds
One last thing. People keep asking why I care about debates and late events after early voting has started. Simple. The undecided don’t vote early. They take longer. Those are the folks who will settle a lot of these races.
The Watcher’s Oath
So that’s my list. Like Uatu, I’ve sworn to just watch. But if anything gets truly out of hand between now and Tuesday night, don’t be surprised if I break the oath.
Abdul-Hakim Shabazz is the editor and publisher of IndyPolitics.org and an attorney licensed in Indiana and Illinois. If you have something worth sharing, e-mail him at abdul@indypolitics.org.
